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1965年，戈登·摩尔提出了著名的预言：集成电路上可容纳的晶体管数量大约每18-24个月翻一番。这个预言在随后的半个世纪里成为了半导体行业的“黄金定律”，驱动着计算性能的指数级增长，也推动了移动互联网和云计算革命的到来。

今年下半年以来，AI圈流传着一个半开玩笑的段子：“DeepSeek R2为什么还不发布？因为Scaling Law不灵了。” 笑声背后，是整个行业正在面对的残酷现实：大模型的边际收益正在递减，AI竞赛的上半场规则正在失效。